This article first published in “Alwafd” of Egypt on 8/26 in Arabic, this is is a translation into English with adaptation by the author for English speaking readers.
Fighting ISIL and the inevitability of the Arab-Muslim cooperation
By: Ahmed Fathi
Military strategists agree that no army can achieve triumph in a a battle depending only on the Air Force fire power, and ground troops are always needed to achieve conclusive victory.
The U.S. Has learned valuable lessons from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and I can not imagine the Obama administration will risk sending ground troops to deal with ISIL, due to domestic politics of the United States and rejection by the American public to get involved in new wars outside its borders, especially in the Middle East. The average American citizen does not understand the roots of the problems in the region, and does not see a benefit or return of indulging in these wars. The American citizen realize that the intense need to import oil from the Middle East has decreased, and with the advancement in new methods and sources to produce new and renewable energy or through Shale Gas techniques, making America for the first time an exporter of energy rather than relying On imports from the Middle East.
For a period of time now with the advancement of ISIL into Iraq, talk in the White House and the Pentagon, as well as in Think Tanks closely tied to the Department of State, on the need for the Arab and Islamic countries to form a joint force to fight ISIL and SUCH IDEAS started gaining traction in political circles in the nation’s capital. There is a conviction that the Arab & Islamic States need to assume the responsibility of fighting ISIL on their territories as they are presumably the first line of defense.
In New York the United Nations Security Council has met, and unanimously passed a resolution No. 2170 under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter and imposing sanctions on individuals and organizations such as ISIL and Al-Nusra front, and six identified individuals as their financier and supporters, which in accordance with Chapter VII which allows imposing gradual measures of sanctions up until reaching military actions toward those groups. Some analysts were expecting a resolution similar to 1441 that allowed military operations against Saddam Hussein regime, said that such resolution is expected down the line but not inevitable.
Observers to the fall of events after the capture of Mosul the second largest Iraqi city by the forces of ISIL after the defection of the Iraqi army, they have captured the amount of 500 million dollars in cash, besides gold bullion’s, and an undisclosed amounts of cash in Iraqi Dinars from the vaults of the Central Bank in Mosul. ISIL also seized vast amounts of advanced U.S. made military equipments such as arms, ammunition’s, armored Humvee s, artillery, and personnel carriers from the Iraqi army.
ISIL today is the richest terrorist organization in history, and for comparison I should note that the budget of Al-Qaeda terrorist organization at the height of its operations did not exceed 30 million dollars a year, according to the reports of experts in international terrorism. The Heroin trade and manufacturing that was overseen by Osama Bin Laden, was sufficient to cover this amount easily. The total number of ISIL fighters according to estimates by the intelligence services does not exceed 70 Thousands terrorist. Today ISIL could recruit thousands more of fighters and pay them generously, with the armaments which it seized from the Iraqi army and factions of the Free Syrian Army.
This case of a terrorist organization that have self-sufficiency in money and weapons and personnel, and we will add to them sources of sovereign resources from oil refineries and power plants, to water resources and fertile lands for agriculture. This has led to the proliferation of black-market trade in oil, where their production reaches a daily 30 000 barrels, which they sell to neighboring areas at an estimated value to be between 25-60 dollars depending on the number of intermediaries, and generates a daily income of about two million dollars. All of the fore mentioned makes a unique case of self-sufficiency. For the first time a terrorist organization is in possession of such resources and under their rule live six million human beings, makes it an unprecedented case in the history, therefore relying on the old paradigm in interpretations and analyzing their actions becomes an outdated practice. The Arab and Islamic states can no longer wait for the danger to reach to the border as it has already arrived.
The pivotal question should be like; when will the Arab and Islamic states will act to carry out the role of fighting ISIL? Because there is no other alternative yet in light of the lack of desire or the ability of the United States and the Western nations to undertake this role. Most likely the Western Governments support will be in the areas of intelligence and air-power, and possibly some military experts to advise these armies, but without any involvement by sending ground troops. ISIL poses a threat regionally and internationally, both strategic and geopolitically, where we see the landmarks on the ground are changing the political map in the region of the Fertile Crescent, and a candidate for the expansion toward the states of the Arabian Peninsula. So the rhetoric of screaming and wailing and the blame game against the U.S. will not bring an outcome, since the American position is clear from the outset.
Cooperation to conquer ISIL inside Syria may have started already, and there are reports of a high priority to a cooperation between the West and the Syrian regime and that it has been supplying Syrian intelligence with information on sites that have leaders of ISIL in Syria based on intelligence reports from the German intelligence BND, which have helped the Syrian air-force and artillery to conduct successful raids and bombardments on their sites.
It is urgently required, the formation of a joint Arab-Islamic military force, to deal immediately with ISIL before they escalate and totally engulf the north of Iraq and the West of Syria. The reality of the experiences gained over the past decade of dealing with international terrorism and groups like al Qaeda that these groups adopts a decentralized groups, and only share sets of compatible tactics of bloody actions, while sharing intellectual and religious backbone based on their interpretations of the questionable Shari’a laws to give it legitimacy among their followers to justify the murder and terrorism acts carried.
If Arab and Islamic states decided to look away from that danger, the rate of expansion that ISIL has reached, it makes the invasion of neighboring countries, and control over large tracts of desert land and possibly cities and urban centers, there will not be a long time only and see them have arrived to the bedrooms of Arab leaders and watch them slaughtered in front of television cameras in a Live broadcast on the air. The fight of this cancer militarily and intellectually is a necessity for survival and not a luxury or can be delayed in any way by the leaders of the region.
*** Ahmed Fathi, is a writer and political and economic analyst, specialized in international affairs and accredited journalist at the United Nations Headquarters in New York.
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