Yemen Crisis and the Perils of Proxy War in the Middle East

By: Ahmed Fathi
New York, Mar 24th: The Middle East continues to take center stage in world affairs from the chronic Palestinian question to the emerging democracy in Tunisia and the terrorism attack on tourists in the capital, to the Nuclear talks between the P5+1 and Iran, and the Israeli meddling in the U.S. Foreign Policy and alleged spying on the negotiations, to the Syrian Civil War entering its fifth year, to Libya complicated situation and turning into the training camp of the jihadist terror cells, to the expansion of ISIL in the four corners of the region, add to all of the above Yemen; with the Houthis rebels backed by Iran took control of the impoverished North and advanced towards the stronghold of the internationally recognized Yemeni President Abdrabu Mansour Hadi strong hold in Aden.

Mounting unrest—including suicide bombings claimed by the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group that killed 142 people in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa on Friday—have raised international concerns and prompted an emergency session of the UN Security Council on Sunday, where the 15 members voiced their unanimous support for Hadi, with UN envoy Jamal Benomar warning that without immediate action the country will slide into “further violence and dislocation.” The Security Council at the end of the session issued a presidential statement requesting all parties to adhere to resolution 2201 issued in February 2015, calling on the Houthi rebels to hand over the government buildings seized in the capital and engage in a UN sponsored negotiations by Jamal Benomar the special envoy of the Secretary General. Benomar warned that recent events seem to be leading Yemen to the edge of a civil war,” he told the meeting by video link from Qatar, warning of a protracted crisis like “a Libya-Syria combined scenario.

Yemen, which is a long-time US ally in the fight against Al-Qaeda by allowing Washington to carry out drone strikes against jihadists on its territory, that borders Saudi Arabia from the South and the Sultanate of Oman from the West, is increasingly divided between a north controlled by the Houthis Shi‛ite rebels, who are backed by Iran, and a south dominated by President Hadi supporters, who has turned Aden into the de facto capital of Yemen raising concerns of a full-blown war for control of a globally-strategic oil transit point. To the Arab states, the Houthis are a regional threat, which could become a global problem. If left unchecked, they could choke off the Suez Canal Southern entrance and the Red Sea’s trade routes.

U.S. followed by Britain announced Saturday they were evacuating their remaining Special Forces from Yemen, underlining fears in the West of growing insecurity. But The New York Times reported that even after the withdrawal of American troops, the Central Intelligence Agency will still maintain some covert Yemeni agents in the country. Armed drones will carry out some airstrikes from bases in nearby Saudi Arabia or Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, as was done most recently on Feb. 20. Spy satellites will still lurk overhead and eavesdropping planes will try to suck up electronic communications.” The reported development comes as Yemeni Foreign Minister Riyadh Yassin called on his Arab neighbors from the GCC countries to intervene militarily to stop the inroads made by Shiite Houthi fighters in the predominantly Sunni Muslim country, He also said he had asked the UN and GCC to impose a no-fly zone, after warplanes hit the presidential palace in Aden over the weekend. The Houthis’ rise has alarmed the GCC, and in particular Saudi Arabia, which accuses the Houthis of being a proxy for their key regional rival, Shi’ite-majority Iran. Both of them have denied the Saudi claims.

The forces allied with the Houthis include members of the former central security force, a unit seen as loyal to ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh who was forced from power in early 2012 after a year-long popular uprising and has been accused of working with the Houthis to restore his influence.

There are robust reasons to consider that the Houthis will not initiate an assault on Aden. Such an act would intensify calls from the GCC States (Gulf Cooperation Council) and the international community for intervention under chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which is something that the supporters of the Houthi rebels specially Iran and the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh – don’t want. Most probably, the group will simply seek to use the threat of an assault to force concessions from President Hadi. Nevertheless the Houthis rebels’ history proves that they are anything but predictable and impulsive and it is impossible to rule out anything with them.

*** Ahmed Fathi is a UN based Journalist and Political Analyst.

President of the American Coptic Association and prominent Republican Party official goes Senile in Egypt!!

During a recent visit to Egypt by Monir Dawoud the President of the American Coptic Association and after meeting with local politicians in Egypt yesterday was quoted saying ” We reject Obama’s cooperation with the terrorists!! Personally I don’t recognize him as President of the United States because he deals with terrorists and betrays the American Constitution.” !!!!!

Monir Dawoud (Left) President of the American Coptic Association with Coptic Leaders in New Jersey

Can you spell senile? No logical reason can justify traveling to a foreign country as a U.S. Citizen and holding political consultations with local politicians  and coming out during a time of an ongoing war against terrorism and building an international coalition by the United States Government to fight ISIL, and traveling to a country that is a member of that coalition and stabbing the country and the nation in the back like that and making such irresponsible statements!!!

Sunstroke maybe, but ignorance and senility are probably the main causes coupled with narrow partisanship which as any rookie in politics would know have no place in foreign affairs. For my undecided friends this is an example of how the Republicans like Dawoud are interpreting the 1st amendment with new vision towards allying with foreign states and regimes to undermine the President of the United States overseas, so choose wisely on election day and clean the house from the slime and correct the course of our great nation by sending those who are responsible to lead our nation.

Original Story Sources in Arabic
Elfagr News Paper
http://bit.ly/1wwDluI

Sada Albalad Channel
http://bit.ly/1wwDr5F

U.N. : Special Rapporteur report on human rights situation in Iran

The Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran submited the present report pursuant to Human Rights Council resolution 25/24. He presented developments in the situation of human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran since the submission of his previous report (A/68/503) in October 2013. Although the report is not exhaustive, it provides a picture of the prevailing situation as observed in the preponderance of reports submitted to and examined by the Special Rapporteur.

1. The human rights situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran remains of concern. Numerous issues flagged by the General Assembly, the United Nations human rights mechanisms and the Secretary-General persist, and in some cases appear to have worsened, some recent overtures made by the Administration and the parliament notwithstanding. Those made by the latter include amendments to the Islamic Penal Code and the Criminal Procedure Code, elements of the charter of citizens’ rights proposed by the Administration in September 2013 and the country’s recent ratification of an additional International Labor Organization convention.

2. Various laws, policies and institutional practices continue to undermine the conditions needed for the realization of the fundamental rights guaranteed by international and national law. Some draft laws also appear to further undermine the rights to freedom of expression and association and markedly compound discrimination against women by further eroding their protection from forced marriage and rights to education, work and equal wages.

3. In 2013, the Islamic Republic of Iran submitted periodic national reports to the Committee on the Rights of the Child and the Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, demonstrating some cooperation with human rights mechanisms. Cooperation remains elusive, however. The Government has responded to 40 of the 69 communications sent by thematic special procedures mandate holders and the country-specific mandate holder on a number of cases and developments, including requests regarding the impact of economic sanctions, and six requests for visits to the country, most recently in January 2014. The Special Rapporteur is, however, encouraged by recent attempts by officials to enter into dialogue with him and the international community and looks forward to opportunities for collaboration.

4. Six press statements have been issued by the Special Rapporteur since October 2013, five of which were joined by other special procedures mandate holders, on concerns relating to, among other things, the application of capital punishment, political prisoners and discrimination against women and members of ethnic minority groups.

5. Between 1 January and 30 June 2014, interviews were conducted with 118individuals: 22 were located in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 54 were located in Turkey and 42 were interviewed during a fact-finding mission to Sweden, Austria and Italy from May to June 2014. In preparing the present report, the Special Rapporteur examined existing laws, draft legislation, government statements and reports, reports from civil society, news reports emanating from inside and outside the country and the Government’s reply to a draft of the present report.

Read & Download the Full Report Here

Economy: IMF Says Mideast Recovery is Fragile Amid Conflicts and Transitions

The Middle East and North Africa region continues to experience lackluster growth, the IMF said in its latest regional report. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook, released on October 27, projects growth to increase slightly to 2.6 percent this year.

MENA: Warning Signs of Fascism

By: Ahmed Fathi

There are several definations of Fascism and while some defines it as a way of organizing a society in which a government ruled by a dictator controls the lives of the people and in which people are not allowed to disagree with the government (Mariam Webster Dictionary) Although fascist parties and movements differed significantly from each other, they had many characteristics in common including extreme militaristic nationalism, contempt for electoral democracy and political and cultural liberalism, a belief in natural social hierarchy and the rule of elites, and the desire to create a Volksgemeinschaft (German: “people’s community”), in which individual interests would be subordinated to the good of the nation. The 12 warning signs of Fascism are detailed below. I guess it will be useful to make it easy for those who are asking how can you tell if a certain regime is fascist or not. This article is not intended to make any comparison of any State or Regime in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), but more to provide a check list for scholars and observers aiming to to study and analyze the state of democracy in today’s changing world.

1. Exuberant nationalism

Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic images, slogans and symbols – National flags are seen everywhere in public display. Territorial aggression is explained to be mere destiny — an unbidden greatness thrust upon the nation by history.

It is this burden of unique responsibility that now raises the fascist state above all previous constraint, no longer bound by international obligations, treaties or law.

2. Enemies Identified

This national cause is identified as unity against enemies – The people are rallied around a unifying patriotism directed against some common threat: communists, liberals, a racial, ethnic or religious minority, intellectuals, homosexuals, terrorists, etc.

The state’s message is sometimes couched in an easily recognized religious theme. Amazingly, this language is used even when the full context of the teaching shows the meaning to be diametrically opposed. Any dissent is “siding with the enemy”, and therefore treasonous.

3. Rights Disappear

Disdain for human and political rights – Fascist regimes foster an artificial climate of fear by intentionally amplifying stress and anxiety. Citizens naturally feel a strong need for security and are easily persuaded to ignore abuses in the name of safety. The few still willing to question are met with bullying and smear campaigns of intimidation.

Legislative bodies, if still in existence at all, are cowed into rubber-stamp submission with occasional ceremonial opposition. The judiciary tends to become activist in support of state views. The public often looks away, or even enthusiastically approves as rights are stripped away.

The concept of the individual inevitably yields ground, exchanged for the promised safety of the all-powerful state.

4. Secrecy Demanded

Obsession with secrecy and national security – The workings of government become increasingly hidden. Questioning of authority is discouraged at all levels of society. From office talk at the water cooler up through the entire apparatus of rule, guarded speech and secrecy become ends in themselves.

Troubling questions are muted and entire areas of scrutiny are placed out of bounds by simply invoking “national security”.

5. Military Glorified

Supremacy of the military – The military establishment receives a disproportionate share of government resources, even as pressing domestic needs are neglected. Individual soldiers and military culture are glamorized and made constantly visible.

This provides both an object for public glorification, as well as sharp warning to possibly restless citizens that the power of the state stands close at hand, ready to use its great potential for violence.

6. Corporations Shielded

Corporate power is protected – Typically, a segment of the business elite plays a major role in bringing fascists to national leadership, often from an unsavory obscurity. This marriage of big money and raw violence is often considered by historians to be the hallmark and backbone of fascism.

As these business-government-military interests meld, the significant threat of organized labor is clearly recognized. Labor unions and their support organizations are either co-opted successfully or ruthlessly suppressed and eliminated as soon as possible.  

7. Corruption Unchecked

Rampant cronyism and corruption – Fascist states maintain power through this relatively small group of associates, mutually appointing each other to interlocking and rotating positions in government, business and the military.

With this degree of control, they make full use of both official secrecy and the ready threat of state violence to insulate themselves from any meaningful criticism. They are not accountable and are shielded from scrutiny in a way unthinkable in a democratic society.  

8. Media Controlled

Mass media – Sometimes the media are controlled directly by clumsy government functionaries. At other times, sympathetic corporate media insiders shape the themes indirectly, and therefore more skillfully.

Image regularly trumps content as the “news” is presented breathlessly and with flashy stage effects.

A practiced formula of tenacious repetition brings even the most absurd lie into acceptance over time. By design, the very language itself and the coloration employed will push alternate views “out of the mainstream”.

The terms of any remaining debate are narrowly defined to the state’s advantage, making it easy to marginalize a truly differing perspective. Censorship and “self-censorship”, especially in wartime, is common.

9. Rampant Sexism

Rampant sexism – Governments of fascist states tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Traditional gender roles are made even more rigid and exaggerated. Virulent homophobia is commonly built into broad policy.  

10. Intellectual Bullying

Disdain for intellectuals – Fascist society tends to create an environment of extreme hostility to critical thought in general, and to academics in particular.

Ideologically driven “science” is elevated and lavishly funded, while any expression not in line with the state view is at first ignored, then challenged, then ridiculed and finally stamped out.

It is not uncommon for academics to be pressured to attack the work of their insufficiently patriotic peers. Writings are censored; teachers are fired and arrested. Free artistic expression in new works is openly attacked, and existing works deemed unpatriotic are often publicly destroyed.

11. Militarized Police

Obsession with crime and punishment – Fascist society is often willing to overlook police abuses and forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. Long jail sentences for clearly political offenses, torture and then assassination are at first uncomfortably tolerated, and then start to pile up to become the norm.

Often a national police force is given virtually unlimited power to snoop through the civilian population. Networks of surveillance and informers are employed, both for actual intelligence gathering and also as a means to keep neighbors and co-workers isolated and mistrustful of each other.  

12. Elections Stolen

Fraudulent elections – In the disordered time as fascists are rising to power, the electoral arena becomes increasingly confusing, corrupted, and manipulated.

There is rising public cynicism and distrust over what are widely believed to be phony elections manipulated by moneyed influence, obvious media bias, smear campaigns, ballot tampering, judicial interference, intimidation, or outright assassination of potential opposition. Fascists in power have been known to use this disorder as the rationale to delay elections indefinitely.

Politics: U.S. Mid Term Elections and the Republicans Come Back

By: Ahmed Fathi

Recent polls shows that Seventy Five percent of Americans disapprove of the job that Congress is doing; only Twelve percent approve. This very low approval rating is appalling and factor in the state of hopelessness by the American public that nothing can get done and nothing is getting done. This is leading to a strong manifestation of an anti-incumbent mood according to Jeffrey Pollock, President of Global Strategy Group.

The 2014 midterm elections are about the Senate and a couple of Governors races while the House is not at risk. The control of the Senate will dramatically shape the remaining two years of President Obama, the Republicans need only to win six seats to gain control of the Senate. There is an unprecedented campaigns spending which is exceeding a Billion Dollars says James Hohmann, Senior Political Reporter, Politico.

If we go back to examine the Democrats big win in 2008 in Senate races we can easily see that it was due to the economic meltdown and the unpopularity of President George W Bush combined with the desire of the American people to get out of Iraq, which led to big winning in Conservative States such as North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana which they are traditionally Republican strong holds.

Today the job approval ratings of President Obama are not good as Fifty Three percent of the voters disapprove of the job he is doing; only Forty Two percent approve. This is one of the worst numbers the President has had. Even more problematic, when you ask different questions like how is he doing on the economy or how is he doing on things that Americans deem to be important to their lives, the numbers can be even worse according to Pollock.

This year the Republicans on the other hand are counting on the retirements among Democratic Senators in States like South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana, which Obama lost during the 2012 elections. This is half the seats needed for the Republicans to control the Senate which is almost certain to go back to the conservative camp. The other States that they are in play with Democratic incumbents running for re-election are Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina, Alaska which by the way Mitt Romney the Republican Candidate in 2012 Presidential elections won by double digits.

While the campaigns tend to be moving in the direction of pouring money in districts and states Thomas Mann who is a Senior Fellow at Brookings Institute sees that basically, Americans tend to vote as a kind of a referendum. That is, Americans – voters who aren’t already committed simply on the basis of party, but the wiggle room, the small number who shift, do so on a referendum basis, and they usually have more to complain about than to applaud. And certainly there’s enough anxiety going around our country. Americans sort of feel the country on the wrong track. We’ve seen a dramatic reduction in the unemployment rate. We’ve seen now a succession of months with well over Two Hundred thousand jobs created. We’ve had real GDP growth. So – and we’ve had a dramatic reduction in the deficit. All of that doesn’t seem to affect the ability of most households to cope with the uncertainty that’s been around in the job market and the absence of real wage gains. Household incomes adjusted for inflation are no higher today than they were in 1980. That’s a little scary, especially following that dramatic growth that we saw in the ’60s and ’70s.

All indications shows that, Republicans are expected to gain the seats needed to take control of the Senate, second the size of the electorate in midterm elections is Twenty percentage points lower than in presidential elections. And the latter, it tends to get up to about Sixty percent; in mid-term elections, it’s Forty percent. And it turns out the composition of the electorate is quite different- more older people, more married couples, fewer younger people, fewer minorities, fewer single people. It turns out; in general, the midterm electorate is demographically more favorable to Republicans according to Mann.

A Republican controlled Senate will not be the end of the battle, as in two years their Senators who are up for re-elections in a solid blue states in Pennsylvania, in Wisconsin, in New Hampshire and several other places that they are hard to win for Republicans and will bring back Democrats control to Capitol Hill.

*** Ahmed Fathi is a New York based Egyptian American Journalist and Political Analyst.

Foreign Affairs: Fighting ISIL and the inevitability of the Arab-Muslim cooperation|By:Ahmed Fathi

This article first published in “Alwafd” of Egypt on 8/26 in Arabic, this is is a translation into English with adaptation by the author for English speaking readers.

Fighting ISIL and the inevitability of the Arab-Muslim cooperation

By: Ahmed Fathi

Military strategists agree that no army can achieve triumph in a a battle depending only on the Air Force fire power, and ground troops are always needed to achieve conclusive victory.

The U.S. Has learned valuable lessons from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and I can not imagine the Obama administration will risk sending ground troops to deal with ISIL, due to domestic politics of the United States and rejection by the American public to get involved in new wars outside its borders, especially in the Middle East. The average American citizen does not understand the roots of the problems in the region, and does not see a benefit or return of indulging in these wars. The American citizen realize that the intense need to import oil from the Middle East has decreased, and with the advancement in new methods and sources to produce new and renewable energy or through Shale Gas techniques, making America for the first time an exporter of energy rather than relying On imports from the Middle East.

For a period of time now with the advancement of ISIL into Iraq, talk in the White House and the Pentagon, as well as in Think Tanks closely tied to the Department of State, on the need for the Arab and Islamic countries to form a joint force to fight ISIL and SUCH IDEAS started gaining traction in political circles in the nation’s capital. There is a conviction that the Arab & Islamic States need to assume the responsibility of fighting ISIL on their territories as they are presumably the first line of defense.

In New York the United Nations Security Council has met, and unanimously passed a resolution No. 2170 under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter and imposing sanctions on individuals and organizations such as ISIL and Al-Nusra front, and six identified individuals as their financier and supporters, which in accordance with Chapter VII which allows imposing gradual measures of sanctions up until reaching military actions toward those groups. Some analysts were expecting a resolution similar to 1441 that allowed military operations against Saddam Hussein regime, said that such resolution is expected down the line but not inevitable.

Observers to the fall of events after the capture of Mosul the second largest Iraqi city by the forces of ISIL after the defection of the Iraqi army, they have captured the amount of 500 million dollars in cash, besides gold bullion’s, and an undisclosed amounts of cash in Iraqi Dinars from the vaults of the Central Bank in Mosul. ISIL also seized vast amounts of advanced U.S. made military equipments such as arms, ammunition’s, armored Humvee s, artillery, and personnel carriers from the Iraqi army.

ISIL today is the richest terrorist organization in history, and for comparison I should note that the budget of Al-Qaeda terrorist organization at the height of its operations did not exceed 30 million dollars a year, according to the reports of experts in international terrorism. The Heroin trade and manufacturing that was overseen by Osama Bin Laden, was sufficient to cover this amount easily. The total number of ISIL fighters according to estimates by the intelligence services does not exceed 70 Thousands terrorist. Today ISIL could recruit thousands more of fighters and pay them generously, with the armaments which it seized from the Iraqi army and factions of the Free Syrian Army.

This case of a terrorist organization that have self-sufficiency in money and weapons and personnel, and we will add to them sources of sovereign resources from oil refineries and power plants, to water resources and fertile lands for agriculture. This has led to the proliferation of black-market trade in oil, where their production reaches a daily 30 000 barrels, which they sell to neighboring areas at an estimated value to be between 25-60 dollars depending on the number of intermediaries, and generates a daily income of about two million dollars. All of the fore mentioned makes a unique case of self-sufficiency. For the first time a terrorist organization is in possession of such resources and under their rule live six million human beings, makes it an unprecedented case in the history, therefore relying on the old paradigm in interpretations and analyzing their actions becomes an outdated practice. The Arab and Islamic states can no longer wait for the danger to reach to the border as it has already arrived.

The pivotal question should be like; when will the Arab and Islamic states will act to carry out the role of fighting ISIL? Because there is no other alternative yet in light of the lack of desire or the ability of the United States and the Western nations to undertake this role. Most likely the Western Governments support will be in the areas of intelligence and air-power, and possibly some military experts to advise these armies, but without any involvement by sending ground troops. ISIL poses a threat regionally and internationally, both strategic and geopolitically, where we see the landmarks on the ground are changing the political map in the region of the Fertile Crescent, and a candidate for the expansion toward the states of the Arabian Peninsula. So the rhetoric of screaming and wailing and the blame game against the U.S. will not bring an outcome, since the American position is clear from the outset.

Cooperation to conquer ISIL inside Syria may have started already, and there are reports of a high priority to a cooperation between the West and the Syrian regime and that it has been supplying Syrian intelligence with information on sites that have leaders of ISIL in Syria based on intelligence reports from the German intelligence BND, which have helped the Syrian air-force and artillery to conduct successful raids and bombardments on their sites.

It is urgently required, the formation of a joint Arab-Islamic military force, to deal immediately with ISIL before they escalate and totally engulf the north of Iraq and the West of Syria. The reality of the experiences gained over the past decade of dealing with international terrorism and groups like al Qaeda that these groups adopts a decentralized groups, and only share sets of compatible tactics of bloody actions, while sharing intellectual and religious backbone based on their interpretations of the questionable Shari’a laws to give it legitimacy among their followers to justify the murder and terrorism acts carried.

If Arab and Islamic states decided to look away from that danger, the rate of expansion that ISIL has reached, it makes the invasion of neighboring countries, and control over large tracts of desert land and possibly cities and urban centers, there will not be a long time only and see them have arrived to the bedrooms of Arab leaders and watch them slaughtered in front of television cameras in a Live broadcast on the air. The fight of this cancer militarily and intellectually is a necessity for survival and not a luxury or can be delayed in any way by the leaders of the region.

*** Ahmed Fathi, is a writer and political and economic analyst, specialized in international affairs and accredited journalist at the United Nations Headquarters in New York.